Chris Moye | Curated Intelligence

The trade that defines Druckenmiller's late-April rotation: he fully exited SanDisk after a ~400% one-quarter run and rolled the proceeds into Bloom Energy. Thesis is simple and hard to argue with right now — hyperscaler AI capex is hitting a power wall before it hits a chip wall. Bloom's solid-oxide fuel cells run on natural gas, hydrogen, or biogas, can be sited at a data center, and don't wait for grid interconnection queues. Adjacent buys: Alcoa, Entegris, Lattice Semi, Delta. He also went hard back into GOOGL (+277%) and AMZN (+92%) — same week Wood was buying Meta. Top holdings remain Natera + Insmed (the biotech-as-AI-use-case bet from February).

Most consequential single move from the analyst roster this month. Rule trimmed three-quarters of his physical silver position, calling the trade "hated to loved" and the "easy silver trade over." Redeployed ~50% of proceeds into silver mining stocks — his argument is they're being priced as if silver were $45 in a $75 world, so even a sideways spot price means asymmetric upside in the equities. He's now sitting in ~40% cash and explicitly warning of an imminent credit-market shock, especially in private credit. Still long gold as savings, still buying Ivanhoe and Amargo on the copper supply-shock thesis. Direct disagreement with Tiggre's $200+ silver call — useful tension to watch.

Gromen's most ambitious historical analogy yet. The 1956 Suez crisis ended British financial primacy in real time — sterling collapsed within weeks, the IMF was forced into existence, and London never recovered as the world's reserve banking center. He argues we're in the same moment for the dollar: a regional power (Iran) just demonstrated it can disrupt the post-1971 petrodollar plumbing, and the US response has been militarily ineffective and economically expensive. As long as the Strait stays closed, 10Y yields keep rising and only Fed/Treasury liquidity injection caps them. Pair this with his Apr 23 "Shovels Not Spreadsheets" episode (with Craig Tindale) on what happens when Wall Street's models meet a physical-world reset.

Visser's April update is the cleanest articulation of his thesis to date. The new framing: code is now free, hardware is the scarcity, so the trade is long semiconductors and physical infrastructure, short hyperscalers and software. He's calling the next 15 years a $90T "physical AI upgrade" — minerals, materials, electrons. On Bitcoin: what just happened in silver (the squeeze, the institutional flip from "hated to chased") is what's coming for BTC, and $300K is in his realistic range. Says CPI prints above 4% are the new normal and the Fed is structurally trapped. Silver-as-AI-energy-conversion remains his signature non-consensus call.

Gromen and Alden’s first joint interview since the ceasefire. They argue the real crisis isn’t Hormuz — it’s what happens to the Treasury market when oil-driven inflation meets structural fiscal deficits. Gromen introduces the "dry powder vs whoosh down" framework: either the ceasefire holds and markets get a relief rally to sell into, or it fails and the Fed has to expand its balance sheet by orders of magnitude. Alden adds the liquidity angle — Bitcoin and gold as the only assets that work in both scenarios.

Gromen argues the Hormuz closure is the single variable that matters right now. If it stays shut 3-4 more weeks, he expects the worst economic crisis in living memory — combining the supply shock of COVID with a sovereign debt crisis worse than 2008. He walks through diesel shortages in Australia/NZ, China hoarding refined products, helium supply risks for semiconductors, and why the US miscalculated the Treasury rate implications of higher oil. Markets, he says, are "astonishingly complacent."

Alden lays out the bull case for silver: industrial demand from solar and electronics is structurally rising while mine supply has plateaued. She argues that in a fiscal dominance regime where the Fed can't meaningfully tighten, precious metals become the release valve — and silver, with its dual industrial/monetary role, has more upside torque than gold.

Gromen focuses on the sovereign debt side of the crisis. Social Security is inflation-adjusting upward, banks face rising delinquencies, and the Treasury's plan to refi on the short end is blowing up as short rates rise with oil. He argues the math is now impossible without massive Fed balance sheet expansion — and that most investors haven't done the arithmetic on what happens when a debt-based system meets structural inflation.

Gromen's most alarming interview: he says this is the first time he's genuinely concerned about a spiral into regional or global conflict. The thesis is that gold and sovereign debt are diverging in a way that signals a regime break — not a correction. He models a scenario where the Fed balance sheet needs to reach $40-100 trillion to absorb consumer credit and eurodollar market stress. The "mother of all volatility events" is how he frames the potential magnitude.

Gromen makes the case that we're at the end of a 100-year debt supercycle and gold revaluation is the least-bad policy option. Sovereign and super-sovereign investors are already rotating from Treasuries to gold. He recommends 15-25% physical gold allocation for households and argues that AI-driven productivity gains — while real — won't prevent the credit crisis that comes when fewer workers default on mortgages, car loans, and credit cards.

Visser calls this a genuine regime shift, not a replay of 2025's tariff dip. Using a Rocky analogy — "Apollo Creed got knocked down in round one" — he argues institutions have finally accepted this isn't going away. Real shortages (diesel, jet fuel) are creating COVID-like supply problems most Americans can't see yet. His thesis: inflation is going structural, and Bitcoin is the asset that compounds 50% a year in a world where governments can't stop printing.

Visser's early-2026 framework connecting AI infrastructure spending to Bitcoin. His argument: AI capex requires massive fiscal support, which means more debt issuance, which means more liquidity, which flows into hard assets. Bitcoin sits at the intersection of all three trends — technology, fiscal policy, and monetary debasement. He also warns that traditional 60/40 portfolios will underperform in a world where bond-stock correlations have flipped.

Visser's year-ahead outlook from late 2025. He predicted fiscal dominance would accelerate, inflation would persist above target, and Bitcoin would emerge as the "purest AI trade" — not because of any direct link to AI technology, but because AI spending forces the fiscal expansion that debases fiat currencies. He was early on the regime shift call and the bond-stock correlation breakdown.

Druckenmiller on 45 years of lessons. The standout trade: Teva Pharmaceuticals — a boring generic drug company at 6x earnings that doubled after pivoting to biosimilars. He rotated into biotech because "the best use case for AI is drug discovery, diagnostics, and monitoring" — learned from 30 years on Memorial Sloan Kettering's board. The Soros lesson: "It's not whether you're right or wrong, it's how much you make when you're right." Also bullish on copper (no supply) and bearish on the dollar.

Druckenmiller flags three signals he's watching: the speed of Treasury rate rises, credit spread widening in investment-grade bonds, and the dollar's decline against commodity currencies. He argues the current fiscal trajectory is the most dangerous he's seen in his career and that the market's P/E multiple cannot be sustained if real rates stay elevated. Not a panic call — more a methodical risk assessment from someone who's never had a losing year.

Druckenmiller's 13F filing revealed he sold his entire Meta position and rotated into three new names. The signal: he thinks AI momentum trades are overcooked and the real value is in sectors where AI actually improves fundamentals (biotech, healthcare) rather than where it inflates multiples (big tech). A portfolio that averaged 30% annual returns for three decades is now positioned for a very different market than the one most people are still trading.

Tiggre, founder of The Independent Speculator, argues investors are dangerously complacent. With Hormuz closed and the S&P near all-time highs, he sees a massive disconnect. His "Giant X" framework for gold vs. the dollar points to continued upside for monetary metals. War destroys infrastructure and ammunition — everything that needs replacing is inflationary. He's bullish on gold, silver, and critical minerals facing structural supply constraints, while warning that any asset can reverse on a single tweet.

Napier — financial historian and founder of the Library of Mistakes — delivered a stark message at an Amati Global Investors event: "investors should have zero bonds in their portfolios." With total US debt at 250% of GDP (and that's the 5th best globally), he sees financial repression as the most politically realistic path — governments forcing savers to own their bonds while inflation erodes the debt. Foreign ownership of US assets at $67tn creates a massive vulnerability if capital controls emerge. His playbook: value stocks, UK, Japan, and emerging markets — the same things that worked from 1966 to 1982.

Wood's monthly In The Know covers three major threads: Iran's military capacity down 90%, creating a "coiled spring" for regime change and tech-driven growth; the private credit crisis ($1.8T market with BlackRock blocking redemptions on guaranteed 10-12% yields); and a "PC moment" with Claude Code that has her team automating six months of projects in hours. On macro, she's bullish — nonfarm productivity at 2.8% and heading to 5%, capital spending accelerating, and a surprise Boeing 500-plane order signaling US-China talks going better than expected. Oil headed below $50 as EVs reshape demand.

Pompliano reveals 95% of his net worth is in Bitcoin and explains why extreme concentration isn't as crazy as it sounds — if you have deep conviction in an asymmetric asset. He walks through holding through the 80% drawdown in 2018, the psychology of conviction investing, and why "it's been hard, but it's going to get harder — for everyone else." Part personal finance philosophy, part macro thesis on fiat debasement.